Trader: Ontario Sportsbooks Sweating Huge Jays’ Liability Right Now
With the Blue Jays set to begin the American League Division Series this afternoon against the Yankees, Phill Gray, the former Head of Trading Operations at Sports Interaction, is well aware that Canadian gamblers support their teams more than any other.
Big Jays Liability
“There’s going to be a lot of Ontario books sweating a huge Jays liability right now,” he told Casino.org. Gray said he remembers the Raptors run to an NBA championship in 2019, and how that wiped out their book’s entire basketball profit for the season.
According to Gray, a book's MLB loss may be "mid seven figures."
Luis Gill of the Yankees will face Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays in Game 1 this afternoon at 4:08 p.m. EST.
Jays Opened at +2000
“Canadian facing books face a steep challenge all season for NHL/NBA/MLB,” Gray said. “Leafs and Oilers/Raptors/Jays. The home betting public overwhelmingly back these teams’ night in and night out as well as in futures, doesn’t matter the pricing. So, it becomes a feast or famine for the most part in profit/loss.
“The Blue Jays consistent winning regular season hits hard on a game-by-game basis. Futures now come into play. With 94 wins the Jays went well over their opening projected total of 79.5, a big loss as the over was heavily backed. They opened at varying prices around +900 to take the AL East, again would have been a larger liability on them from the get-go and the payout at that price is substantial.”
Against the Phillies, Ohtani starts
For the pennant, Toronto opened primarily at +2000, and for the World Series, they opened at twice that. According to Gray, these markets will account for easily 75% of the action. The Jays' season-long game liabilities and a significant loss would be the outcome for these books in Ontario.
“I sat through the same scenario with the Raptors in 2019. It’s easily potential mid 7-figure loss for a book this October as it was for us that spring with the Raptors,” he said.
Possible Loss of Seven Figures
On the divisional series front, it is a busy day. The Dodgers (Shohei Ohtani) face the Phillies (Cristopher Sanchez) at 6:38 p.m. EST, the Cubs (Matthew Boyd) play the Brewers (Freddy Peralta) at 2:08 p.m. EST, and the Tigers (Troy Melton) go to Seattle to play the Mariners (George Kirby) at 8:38 p.m. EST.
“There is some good two-way money on the series,” said Eric Biggio, Lead Baseball Trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “We opened a little higher on the series price than I had initially thought, with the Yankees at -150. Bo Bichette’s day-to-day status, combined with the Yankees’ winning their last two elimination games versus the Red Sox, both factored in pushing the Yankees out as a bigger favorite.
“I personally think the Jays are live in the series, especially if they take advantage of home field with Kevin Gausman in Game 1 and Shane Bieber in Game 2.”
Large wager on the Dodgers to win the World Series
It should come as no surprise that the Dodgers have been favored to win both the series and the World Series.
I’m sure we’ll wind up needing the Phillies in most games, as the Dodgers have been a public betting favorite most of the year,” said Biggio. “Christopher Sanchez has been underrated all year for the Phillies. If they hold serve with him in Game 1, I think they’ll pull off the small upset in the series.”
The Mariners are the biggest series favourite of the four Division Series matchups – at -180.
Recency Bias on Cubs
“On paper, they’ve got the better lineup and better pitching depth. So they are a deserved favorite in this matchup,” said Biggio. “We’ll probably need the Tigers in any game not started by Tarik Skubal in this series.
“Not enough respect for the Brewers here? The No. 1 overall seed in the playoffs is only a -125 series favorite? There may be some recency bias on the Cubs, not sure. But I’ll be interested to see the way the bets come in on this one.”
In Canada, at NorthStar, Jays are a small underdog at -129, the Yankees at +110. The Phillies are -122, the Dodgers are +105; the Mariners are -225, the Tigers are +185; while the Brewers are underdogs at -165, the Cubs are +140.
The Yankees are +105 and the Jays are -125 at BetMGM this morning; the Cubs are +135 and the Brewers are -161; the Dodgers are +105 and the Phillies are -125; the Tigers are +180 and the Mariners are -222.