Analyst: Prediction Markets Pacing to $1 Trillion in Volume by 2030

Prediction market volume is exploding this year and the industry’s rapid expansion puts it on pace to reach $1 trillion in annual turnover by 2030, according to Bernstein Research.

According to a recent report by Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, yes/no exchanges are expected to reach $240 billion in volume by 2026.

The Bernstein report emerged just days after Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly activity. Professional traders are using Chhugani more frequently, which is fueling increases in the volume of prediction markets.

"We expect [the] institutional market to develop around economics, business and political contracts, as investors seek more direct and discrete exposure to events,” observes the analyst. “We also expect hedging demand from corporates, [and] insurance firms exposed to specific event risks.”

The analyst estimates that sports event contracts represent more than 60% of industry turnover today — low compared to other forecasts — but in good news for platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, he sees that percentage being cut in half by 2030.

 

Prediction Market Winners' Typical Suspects

Volume on Kalshi and Polymarket has already surpassed the 2025 total thus far this year, leading Bernstein to project $2.5 billion in prediction markets revenue—more than six times the $400 million recorded the previous year.

Based on current industry take rates, the research firm projects that revenue will reach $10.8 billion by 2030.

Chhugani identifies Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) and Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) as two of the main publicly traded companies benefiting from the prediction markets boom, as some of his colleagues have done.

According to the Bernstein analyst, Robinhood, which claims that prediction markets are its fastest-growing business to date, accounts for 30% of Kalshi's turnover with $350 million in recurring yearly revenue from event contracts with the well-known brokerage firm.

Last year, Coinbase partnered with Kalshi to enter the prediction markets sector.

Because they have millions of users, many of whom are active traders, and the technology and compliance expertise necessary to succeed with event contracts, Coinbase and Robinhood are both viewed as winners in a prediction markets expansion scenario.

 

Predictive markets will benefit from regulatory clarity

It is well known that prediction market operators are facing a number of state-level legal challenges, and some observers believe the Supreme Court will provide the final decision. However, it is unclear when the high court would consider cases involving prediction markets.

While the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is engaged in regulatory turf wars with states, Chhugani believes that states' legal actions won't impede the long-term expansion of prediction markets.

“Despite ongoing state-level legal challenges, we expect platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and public proxies (HOOD, COIN) to benefit from increasing regulatory clarity and growing alignment with federal regulators (SEC, CFTC) — a key driver of market legitimacy and mainstream adoption,” notes the Bernstein analyst.